Billy's won two straight in this series, and Tony — whose team name is doing a lot of emotional labor right now — has a playoff win over Billy that keeps this from feeling like a momentum story. The tightest game these two ever played came down to 1.36 points in 2017, which means both of them already know exactly how much a bad kicker week costs. Week 4 is early enough that nothing's decided, but late enough that dropping this one starts a conversation you don't want to be having.