BDLL 2026 · Draft Weekend Fund
The Parlay
Ten bucks a head. Six win-total overs. One shot at making next year's Draft Weekend somebody else's problem.
$120 to pay $3,162.79
6-leg parlay · +2535
Chance to cash
<0.1%
▼ vs. purchase
At purchase
3.8%
what +2535 implied
Fair value today
$0
chance × payout (no book will pay this)
Legs alive
6/6
none cashed yet
Six legs · all must hit
The Legs
2–5
Needs 2 of 10 remaining
Projects to
5.7 W
Win pace needed
20%
ESPN FPI proj
5.4 W
Schedule
NFL Week 8
The Rooting Guide
@Baltimore RavensRavens4-3+14539%
Buffalo BillsBillsOur leg5-1-17561%Sun 1:00 PM ET · BUF -3 · O/U 54.5 · DraftKings
Ticket if… (now <0.1%)
How the odds work
Records, schedules and lines come from ESPN's public feed (moneylines are DraftKings, as shown by ESPN). Each unplayed game gets a win chance: this week's games use the moneyline with the bookmaker's cut removed; later games use ESPN's Football Power Index ratings, plus 1.5 points for home field, with a 13.5-point spread of outcomes. Those two numbers are our estimates, not ESPN's.
Then the rest of the season gets played 20,000times. The Chargers play the Raiders twice and the Bills once, and every one of those games is a win for one of our legs and a loss for another, so the legs can't just be multiplied together. "Chance to cash" is the share of simulated seasons where all 6 teams go over.
These are estimates for fun, not a sportsbook's price. "Fair value" is chance × payout; no book would actually cash the ticket out for that. Ties count as half a win.
Updated Oct 29, 3:06 AM ET · refreshes every 2 minutes
